As Russia tries to strike a delicate balance between India and China on the Galwan Valley face-off, questions are being raised on the relevance of the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral. How should Rajnath Singh’s Moscow visit, where his Chinese counterpart was also present, be seen in light of recent tensions with China. Can Russia, with its heavy trade dependence on China and strong diplomatic ties with India, take a clear position on the matter?
Key takeaways -
- Russia is getting close to China
- Majority of India's defence need comes from Russia
- Russia's changed foreign policy is seen through the prism of engagement with the west
- Russia is antagonistic to Indo-Pacific narrative
- RIC is product of 1990s to challenge US unipolarity
- Fragmentation of the multilateral norms is to happen → issue based coalitions is the need
- non convergence of India and China will endanger not only RIC but also BRICS and the global order
- Given the China's economic heft and aggression is now acting against China
- EU do not see themselves as geopolitical actor but UK & France has different view regarding Indo-Pacific matter
- US must counter its declining credibility in the Indo-Pacific — Obama admin started it in the name of 'rebalancing of Indo-Pacific'
- Indeed, India will have its supporters and friends in this episode with China but anything escalating it to a geopolitical and geoeconomic level will definitely be a global harm